Odds on sods: Korea have 70% chance of getting out of World Cup group, leading analysis says

SALT LAKE CITY — Sports data analysis company Opta Sports projects that Korea have an over 70 percent chance of advancing from the group stage and less than 1 percent chance of winning at the World Cup.

"We can turn to the Opta supercomputer to provide a comprehensive World Cup forecast that sets realistic expectations for supporters of all 48 nations," the data analysis company said on its website on Monday. "We asked the supercomputer to simulate the 2026 World Cup 10,000 times."

The Taeguk Warriors have a 70.35 percent chance of reaching the knockout stage, according to Opta Sports. The supercomputer gave Korea a 33.52 percent chance of advancing to the round of 16.

Korea's chances of reaching the quarterfinals were estimated at 12.74 percent. The odds of advancing to the semifinals — the furthest the country has gone as it took out favorites Portugal, Italy and Spain in the 2002 tournament on home soil, an edition that had one fewer round than this year's — were projected at 4.02 percent, while a final appearance seems slim at 1.3 percent. The chances of winning the tournament stood at 0.36 percent.

Korea is set to face Mexico, the Czech Republic and South Africa in Group A on June 11 at the Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico. 

The data company rated Mexico as the strongest team in the group. The supercomputer gave Mexico an 87.1 percent chance of advancing from the group stage, along with a 51.96 percent chance of reaching the round of 16, a 24.22 percent chance of making the quarterfinals, an 8.43 percent chance of reaching the semifinals, a 2.96 percent chance of reaching the final and a 0.9 percent chance of winning the tournament.

The Czech Republic, widely viewed as Korea's main rival for second place in Group A, received slightly lower projections. Their chances of advancing from the group stage were estimated at 63.38 percent, followed by 28.1 percent for the round of 16, 10.06 percent for the quarterfinals, 3.02 percent for the semifinals, 1 percent for the final and 0.29 percent for the title.

South Africa, a team Korea must beat in the group stage, were given a 49.29 percent chance of advancing to the knockout stage. Their chances of reaching the round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals and final were estimated at 18.92 percent, 5.96 percent, 1.41 percent and 0.37 percent, respectively.

The supercomputer gave the Bafana Bafana a 0.09 percent chance of winning the World Cup.

Japan received the highest rating among Asian teams. Their chances of advancing from the group stage were projected at 76.16 percent. The analysis company also gave Samurai Blue a 33.47 percent chance of reaching the round of 16, a 17.02 percent chance of making the quarterfinals, a 7.4 percent chance of reaching the semifinals, a 3.28 percent chance of reaching the final and a 1.24 percent chance of lifting the trophy.

Spain emerged as the data analysis firm's leading title favorite. The supercomputer gave Spain a 16.1 percent chance of winning the World Cup, the highest among all participating nations.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.

BY PIH JU-YOUNG [lee.jiwon10@joongang.co.kr]