With visit to Pyongyang, Xi Jinping sets stage for deeper ties with Kim Jong-un in summit

As Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to visit North Korea on Monday, analysts expect a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to focus on restoring and strengthening strategic ties between the two countries

The meeting will mark the first summit between the two leaders in Pyongyang since June 2019. Given the significance of the visit, Xi is widely expected to arrive with a package of economic and political incentives for Kim. The outcome could offer clues about the future direction of not only China–North Korea relations but also ties between Seoul and Beijing as well as the inter-Korean dynamic.

The two leaders are expected to reaffirm the strength of their two countries' alliance and discuss ways to expand cooperation. The two sides could introduce measures aimed at elevating bilateral ties to a new level in celebration of the 65th anniversary of the China–North Korea treaty, which was ratified in 1961.

 The growing alignment of China, North Korea and Russia could also feature prominently in the talks, with the two leaders potentially discussing ways to deepen a China-centered trilateral partnership aimed at countering U.S. influence. The pair are also expected to discuss major international issues such as Taiwan. 

However, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is unlikely to be discussed. Pyongyang has recently become increasingly vocal about the legitimacy of the North's nuclear weapons program. 

According to the Rodong Sinmun, Kim Yo-jong, a director of North Korea's ruling party and sister of the country's ruler, issued a response on Saturday dismissing a U.S. State Department statement saying that the United States and China had agreed on the goal of North Korea's complete denuclearization during a summit last month.

A fact sheet released by the White House on May 17 stated that the U.S. and Chinese leaders had reaffirmed their shared goal of denuclearizing North Korea. The Rodong Sinmun statement by Kim, however, described the position as "an old practice of the United States for spreading false information."

Analysts view Kim Jong-un's recent military activities as an effort to affirm Pyongyang's position that its nuclear program is no longer open to negotiation.

Kim observed sea trials of the newly built 5,000-ton Kang Kon destroyer on Thursday, showcasing what North Korea described as its multilayered nuclear capabilities across land, sea and underwater domains.

On Wednesday, he inspected a newly operational nuclear-material production facility, where he claimed the capacity to produce weapons-grade nuclear materials had more than doubled over the past five years.

"It is generally unusual for a country to showcase sensitive military assets or issue provocative diplomatic statements immediately before a visit by a key foreign leader," said Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU). "By revealing North Korea's nuclear-material facility, destroyer and missile-production plant ahead of Xi's visit and by issuing a statement on the U.S.-China summit, it could be considered a message to China."

 Hong's assessment is also supported by the fact that Beijing made no mention of denuclearization in the joint statement issued after the China–North Korea summit in the Chinese capital in September of last year. The absence was a contrast from China's previous position, where Beijing referenced the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula during all five summits with North Korea between 2018 and 2019.

At the same time, China's efforts to project itself as a responsible major power make it unlikely to publicly accept North Korea's nuclear status.

Economic cooperation, particularly in areas where the two countries' interests align such as expanding bilateral trade and developing border regions, is expected to be discussed. Trade between China and North Korea has already surged this year and reached its highest level since November 2017, when international sanctions began tightening in response to Pyongyang's advancing nuclear and missile programs.

 For North Korea, Chinese cooperation is critical to the success of Kim Jong-un's flagship regional development policy and efforts to expand the tourism sector.

Beijing may also push for progress on a longstanding goal of gaining access to the East Sea via the lower Tumen River. Another issue that could be discussed is the opening of the New Yalu River Bridge, a cross-border project completed in 2014 that has yet to enter full operation.

Another closely watched question is whether Kim Jong-un's daughter, Kim Ju-ae, will meet Xi during the visit.

Introducing Kim Ju-ae to the leader of China, one of North Korea's closest allies, could reinforce the perception that he has chosen her as his successor. Both Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un reportedly met Chinese leaders before they were officially designated as successors.

 Still, analysts caution against drawing firm conclusions. Although Kim Ju-ae accompanied Kim Jong-un during his visit to China for Victory Day commemorations in September last year, she did not appear at any official events.

 For Beijing, a public meeting between Xi and Kim Ju-ae could prove politically sensitive, as it could be interpreted as China's tacit endorsement of a fourth generation of hereditary rule in North Korea.

 China's sensitivity on the issue was evident in its media coverage. When Xinhua News Agency reported on Kim's arrival in Beijing last year, it released photographs in which Kim Ju-ae's face was largely hidden behind her father.

The images stood in contrast to North Korean state media coverage, in which the father and daughter are often shown side by side.

 "Because the summit will be held in Pyongyang, it is difficult to gauge whether Ju-ae will be brought into the spotlight," said Oh Gyeong-seob, a senior research fellow at KINU. "Even if the encounter happens, it is more likely to take place in a private setting rather than at an official diplomatic event."

 The Rodong Sinmun reported on Sunday that Kim Jong-un had visited a key defense production facility on Saturday to inspect missile manufacturing operations.

Kim ordered officials to increase production capacity for ballistic and cruise missiles by two and a half times within the next five years, according to the report, emphasizing that such expansion is crucial to keeping up with increasing missile demand. 

He also instructed officials to place the order on the agenda for an upcoming plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea.

 The newspaper also released photographs showing Kim touring a facility believed to store large numbers of KN-23 missiles, known as North Korea's version of the Russian Iskander missile.

 Accompanying Kim were senior officials such as Jo Chun-ryong, a party secretary, and Kim Jong-sik, the first director of the ruling party's munitions industry department.

 "The message appears to be that North Korea should be recognized not as a target for denuclearization but as a nuclear-armed state and an equal strategic partner," Hong said. "It may also be intended to pre-empt any renewed focus on denuclearization at future U.S.-China summits."

CHUNG YEONG-GYO, SHIM SEOK-YONG [lee.jiwon10@joongang.co.kr]