Prepare for prolonged war by managing energy demand (KOR)

Higher oil prices and a weaker won are already pushing up import costs, stirring inflationary pressure across the economy. According to figures released by the Bank of Korea on Wednesday, import prices in February rose 1.1 percent from the previous month and 1.2 percent from a year earlier. Crude oil prices jumped 9.8 percent. Since the war involving Iran has driven international oil prices even higher in March, import prices are likely to continue rising this month as well. Import costs do not stop at the border. They filter through, with some delay, into corporate production expenses and eventually into consumer prices.

Inflation has a direct effect on daily life. That is why the government must respond firmly to attempts to exploit market anxiety. Hoarding scarce goods or imposing excessive price hikes should not be tolerated. The government announced last week that it would place 23 items closely tied to people’s livelihoods under special management. They include petroleum products, which are currently subject to a maximum price system, as well as staple foods such as rice and basic necessities such as school uniforms and sanitary products, all items President Lee Jae Myung has publicly singled out. Price increases driven by collusion, unfair trade practices or outdated distribution structures should be thoroughly rooted out.

At the same time, as this page has already argued, a price cap on petroleum products should remain only a short-term emergency measure. Such a policy can distort resource allocation and, if prolonged, may create new side effects. In that respect, it is encouraging that the government has begun to place greater emphasis on demand management for energy.

At the Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, President Lee instructed officials to prepare measures on the assumption that the Middle East crisis could be prolonged and even to plan for the worst-case scenario. He called for steps to reduce energy demand, including possible driving restrictions based on vehicle plate numbers. His point was clear: The country cannot rely only on attempts to suppress prices while ignoring the need to reduce consumption.

Lee was also right to suggest that direct fiscal support for vulnerable groups would be preferable to cutting fuel taxes. A fuel tax cut may provide immediate relief, but it also encourages greater oil consumption at a time when conservation is needed. That makes it a blunt and inefficient tool.

NH Financial Research Institute has likewise warned that if the war drags on, government control of oil demand may become necessary. It cited measures such as odd-even driving rules, encouragement of remote work and limits on late-night business operations. If the government is serious about preparing for the worst, it should ready a broad menu of energy-saving policies now. Demand management may be inconvenient, but it is likely to be more sustainable and more effective than trying to hold back reality with price controls alone.

이란전쟁 장기화 조짐, 에너지 수요관리 필요하다

고유가·고환율이 수입물가를 끌어올리면서 물가가 들썩이고 있다. 한국은행이 어제 발표한 2월 수입물가는 1월보다 1.1%, 지난해 2월보다 1.2% 각각 상승했다. 원유(9.8%)가 큰 폭으로 뛰었다. 이란전쟁이 터지고 3월 들어 국제 유가가 큰 폭으로 더 오른 만큼 3월 수입물가도 상승세를 이어갈 것이다. 수입물가는 기업의 생산비와 소비자물가에 시차를 두고 반영된다.

물가는 국민의 삶에 직접 영향을 미친다. 시장 불안을 틈타 공급이 부족한 품목을 매점매석하거나 과도하게 가격을 올리는 행위에 대해선 정부가 단호하게 대응할 필요가 있다.

정부는 지난주 민생과 밀접한 23개 품목을 특별관리하겠다고 나섰다. 최고가격제를 시행하는 석유류를 비롯해 쌀 등 국민의 핵심 먹거리, 교복·생리용품 등 이재명 대통령이 공개적으로 관심을 표명했던 품목도 포함돼 있다. 담합 등 불공정행위나 낡은 유통구조 탓에 오르는 물가는 정부가 철저하게 솎아내야 한다.

하지만 우리가 이미 지적했듯이 자원배분을 왜곡하는 석유 최고가격제는 단기 비상조치에 그쳐야 한다. 정부가 석유 수요관리의 필요성을 비중 있게 언급한 것은 그런 점에서 매우 다행스럽다. 이 대통령은 어제 국무회의에서 중동 사태와 관련해 “상황 장기화를 전제로 최악의 시나리오까지 염두에 둔 대책을 마련해야 한다”며 자동차 5부제 혹은 10부제 등의 에너지 수요 절감 대책을 수립하라고 지시했다. 유류세 인하보다 취약층에 재정을 지원하는 게 낫다는 언급도 틀린 데가 하나 없다. 유류세 인하는 석유 수요를 더 늘릴 뿐이다.

NH금융연구소는 전쟁이 장기화하면 정부의 석유 수요 통제가 필요할 수 있다며, 대책으로 자동차 2부제, 재택근무 권장, 심야영업 제한 등을 꼽았다. 대통령 언급처럼 최악의 상황에 대비하려면 에너지 절약을 위한 다양한 수요관리 방안을 준비할 필요가 있다.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.