Empty classrooms demand swift school restructuring

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Joh Sung-wook 

The author is a professor at Seoul National University College of Business School and a member of the Reset Korea economic division. 

Korea is approaching a critical turning point as the number of school-age children continues to decline due to persistently low birth rates. Since 2000, the country’s fertility rate has fallen almost every year. From 2020, the number of newborns dropped below 300,000, marking the start of natural population decline. Although the fertility rate has edged up slightly from 0.72 to 0.8 over the past two years, the annual number of births remains just above 250,000.

The effects are already visible in classrooms. This year, an elementary school in Seoul opened its semester without a single first-grade student for the first time in the city’s record. Nationwide, 210 schools reported no new enrollments, an 81 percent increase from 116 such schools in 2021. Smaller class sizes can allow teachers to better understand individual students and provide tailored instruction. However, when classes shrink too much, students lose opportunities to interact with peers and participate in group activities, through which they develop social skills. School closures can also force students to commute long distances to attend new schools.

These challenges are not new. A study titled “The Effects of School Closure Threats on Student Performance: Evidence from a Natural Experiment,” published in the B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, examined similar developments in Hong Kong. The research, conducted by the author along with Ming Chu and Lawrence Ku, found that declining student populations increased per-student costs, placing further financial strain on schools and sometimes resulting in closures. In 2006, the number of elementary students in Hong Kong had dropped by 9 percent compared to 2000. As a result, 12 out of 18 school districts experienced closures, and the total number of elementary schools fell from 709 to 670.

The study also explored how these changes affected student performance. For areas in which school capacity and facilities exceeded student numbers, schools competed to attract students by adopting new and often costly educational programs with uncertain outcomes. Students exposed to unfamiliar teaching methods experienced higher levels of stress and demonstrated lower academic achievement compared to peers in other regions. When schools eventually closed, the negative impact on student performance was even greater. By contrast, closing underperforming schools and transferring students to better ones improved overall learning outcomes.

Without a long-term national vision and a coordinated strategy, Korea’s fertility rate is likely to remain low or continue to decline. As student numbers fall, it will be impossible to sustain all existing schools. Institutions with large numbers of empty seats will face mounting pressure to restructure or merge. Given that most Koreans live in Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan area, consolidating schools based solely on student numbers risks accelerating population decline in regional areas.

Restructuring, therefore, must be approached with careful consideration of balanced national development. Policymakers should ensure that schools serving as regional hubs are maintained so that young students are not forced to endure excessively long commutes. At the same time, in areas where student populations are too small, consolidation is necessary to ensure the viability of education. Schools that enhance human capital and prepare students for future economic and technological environments should be preserved, but those that fail to do so should be closed. In particular, institutions with strong competitiveness in specialized fields should be prioritized.

Once clear principles and direction are established, swift implementation is essential. Delays only increase costs and prolong uncertainty for students. Change is often met with resistance. People fear job losses, declining property values and the disruption of familiar routines. As a result, leaders frequently postpone difficult decisions and leave them to successors. This pattern can already be seen in Korea’s universities, many of which continue to resist restructuring despite declining enrollment.

Although restructuring entails short-term pain, it can deliver long-term improvements in educational outcomes. Postponing change ultimately harms students by depriving them of better learning opportunities. Swift and decisive action can minimize disruption and allow students to adapt more quickly to new environments.

Schools must act without delay. Structural reform is not simply an administrative necessity but a critical step toward strengthening the country’s competitiveness. By improving the quality of education and ensuring that resources are allocated efficiently, Korea can better prepare its children for the challenges ahead. The future of the nation’s economy and its human capital depends on the decisions made today.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.