Oil surges 9% amid escalating Iran conflict affecting Middle Eastern supply routes

Oil prices surged 9 percent Monday after shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz was disrupted by retaliatory Iranian attacks following initial bombing by Israel and the United States that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Brent crude futures rose as much as 13 percent to $82.37 a barrel, the highest since January 2025, before retreating to trade up $6.91, or 9.5 percent, at $79.78 a barrel by 7:48 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to an intraday high of $75.33, up over 12 percent and the highest since June, though it later pared gains and was up $5.88, or 8.8 percent, at $72.90 per barrel.

Both benchmarks jumped as a sustained exchange of counterattacks damaged tankers and sharply disrupted shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea.

On a typical day, ships carrying oil equal to about one-fifth of global demand from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait sail through the Strait along with tankers hauling diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and other products from their refineries to major Asian markets including China and India.

A longer closure of the Strait would push oil prices higher and cause supply shortages, analysts say.

"A prolonged chokehold on oil flows risks alienating China — a key importer of Gulf crude and one of Tehran's few major partners — while also curtailing Iran's own export revenues. This may temper the duration of any disruption," Sentosa Shipbrokers said on Monday.

More than 200 vessels, including oil and liquefied gas tankers, have dropped anchor outside the Strait, shipping data showed on Sunday. Three tankers were damaged and one seafarer was killed in attacks on Sunday in Gulf waters.

Asian economies are assessing oil stockpile availability and ways to secure alternative supply.  Korea will offer petroleum from its stockpiles to local industries if supply disruptions are prolonged, while India is exploring alternative shipping routes.

Still, prices pared gains after the steep surge in early Asian trade, which analysts attributed to buyers already factoring a risk premium into prices in anticipation of the conflict.

Brent had risen over 19 percent this year until Friday's close, while WTI was trading about 17 percent higher.

"Markets are acknowledging the seriousness of the conflict, but are also signalling that, for now, this is a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova.

Amid the conflict, OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and nonmember partners such as Russia — agreed on Sunday to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April. Every OPEC+ producer is essentially producing at capacity except Saudi Arabia, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said.

The International Energy Agency is in touch with major producers in the Middle East, director Fatih Birol said on Sunday. The energy watchdog coordinates the release of strategic petroleum reserves from developed countries during emergencies.

Globally, visible oil inventories stood at 7.827 million barrels, enough for 74 days of demand, which is near a historic median, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

Citi analysts expect Brent to trade between $80 and $90 a barrel this week amid the ongoing conflict.

"Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes sufficiently as to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the U.S. decides to de-escalate, having seen a change in leadership and set back Iran's missiles and nuclear program over the same time frame," Citi analysts led by Max Layton wrote.

Analysts are also warning retail gasoline prices in the U.S., the world's biggest fuel consumer, may break above $3 a gallon because of the conflict, a potentially risky result for U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections this November.

U.S. gasoline futures surged by as much as 9.1 percent to $2.496 a gallon, their highest since July 2024, and were last at $2.408 a gallon, up 5.4 percent.

Reuters