Trump 2.0: A chance to turn crisis into opportunity
On Jan. 20, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States. Four years after departing Washington with the words, "I will return in some way," President Trump has made a dramatic comeback. Declaring his intention to act "with historic speed and strength" to address America's crises, he has signaled that his "America First" policies will be even more pronounced than before. Nations worldwide are bracing for the "Trump Effect," preparing survival strategies as they anticipate the forthcoming demands.
Korea, grappling with a leadership vacuum following the arrest of President Yoon Suk Yeol, faces a heightened sense of urgency. According to a recent European Council on Foreign Relations survey, Koreans are the most pessimistic among 24 surveyed countries about Trump’s second term, with 11 percent expressing optimism and 68 percent voicing concerns. Given Korea's export-driven economy and vulnerability to North Korea's nuclear threat, there are significant worries about the potential "perfect storm" arising from Trump's new security and trade policies.
Yet Korea has a history of turning crises into opportunities. Since the 1969 "Nixon Doctrine," which led to a partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea, the nation has faced various iterations of "America First" pressures but has consistently managed to navigate through them, ultimately strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance. During Trump’s first term, Korea renegotiated the U.S.-Korea FTA under pressure, resulting in a temporary dip in its trade surplus with the United States before recovering by the end of Trump’s term. On defense cost-sharing, despite facing demands for steep increases, Korea successfully negotiated a moderate rise by highlighting its substantial defense budget relative to GDP and the strategic importance of Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. military base in the world.
As the Trump administration embarks on its second term, it is crucial to recognize that its strategic priority lies in curbing China's aspirations for global dominance. For Korea, located at the nexus of this U.S.-China rivalry, this geopolitical reality offers potential leverage in negotiations with Washington. Korea should actively explore alliances with Japan, the European Union (EU) and other like-minded nations to adapt to the rapidly shifting security and trade environment. Marking 60 years of normalized diplomatic relations, Korea and Japan have a unique opportunity to forge a forward-looking partnership. While acknowledging historical grievances, building a future-oriented relationship will serve the national interests of both countries. By presenting a united front, Korea and Japan could further extend their influence to include Asean nations under their leadership, amplifying their collective impact.
Marco Rubio, the nominee for Secretary of State, has announced plans to conduct a policy review on North Korea. Korea should seize this early window to actively present its perspective and ensure its stance is well-reflected in the new administration’s approach. To this end, South Korea should prioritize initiating a phone call between Trump and acting President Choi Sang-mok, dispatching ministers from key portfolios such as foreign affairs and trade to Washington and inviting key officials from the Trump administration to visit Seoul at the earliest opportunity.
The start of Trump's second term presents Korea with both challenges and opportunities. By proactively engaging with the United States, leveraging its geopolitical position and strengthening alliances with global and regional partners, Korea can navigate the uncertainties ahead while safeguarding its national interests.
Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
