At a crossroads, Korea must deepen its alliance with democratic powers

Yoon Duk-min

The author is former Korean ambassador to Japan

For the past 80 years since liberation, Korea’s transformation has been nothing short of extraordinary. From a war-torn nation to an industrialized democracy, Korea now boasts a per capita income that surpasses Japan’s and export volumes on par with the world's largest economies. In 2023 alone, more than half the population — over 28 million people — traveled abroad. Korea has experienced sustained growth, but warning signs are emerging. Some observers now speak of a “Korea Peak,” warning that the country may be nearing the ceiling of its prosperity. Without decisive action, future generations may find themselves worse off than their parents.

The recent presidential election, marred by martial law declarations and political scandal, took place against the backdrop of one of Korea’s most challenging external environments since the Korean War. The rules of global engagement that once underpinned Korea’s peace and prosperity are shifting. While Japan views the current geopolitical landscape as a national crisis, Korea appears relatively complacent.

Postwar Korea’s rapid development was made possible by the liberal international order created by the United States. Unhindered access to global markets powered its economic ascent. But now, the very architect of that order is threatening its foundations. U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs, undermining free trade norms.

Meanwhile, China — one of the greatest beneficiaries of the existing order — is aggressively expanding its military and pushing to revive a Sinocentric system. Trump has responded by escalating strategic competition in a bid to preserve American primacy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Trump’s refusal to endorse a UN resolution condemning it, signals the erosion of international norms. Major powers are prioritizing self-interest over rules-based governance. We are witnessing a return to great-power politics reminiscent of the late 19th century, when Korea lost its sovereignty under similar circumstances.

The “Korea Peak” thesis is also tied to declining competitiveness in manufacturing and technology. Korea’s manufacturing sector faces immense pressure from China, which announced its “Made in China 2025” initiative under Premier Li Keqiang nearly a decade ago. At the time, many in Korea were skeptical. Today, China leads in four of the 10 strategic sectors identified in the plan and has surpassed Korea in nearly all areas except semiconductors.

What’s more concerning is that Chinese products, often sold below cost, are flooding not only global markets but Korea’s domestic market as well. In next-generation technologies — from AI to quantum computing, robotics to batteries — Korea is falling behind. The once-prevalent phrase “security with the United States, economy with China” no longer reflects present realities.

So how should Korea respond to this turning point?

Though Trump’s actions have disrupted the liberal order, his aggressive decoupling from China’s industrial supply chains offers Korea a rare opportunity. Korean industries, which have struggled against China’s manufacturing scale, now have a window to regain their competitive edge. Seoul must seize this moment to pursue a strategy of “super-gap” innovation in key technologies, working across party lines and mobilizing national capabilities.

If Korea misses this chance, it risks being relegated to a peripheral position within a revived Sinocentric order. Trump’s vision for America’s industrial renewal — in semiconductors, shipbuilding, nuclear energy and other sectors — cannot be realized without Korean cooperation. Trade frictions such as tariffs should be resolved swiftly, allowing Korea and the United States to solidify a coordinated partnership.

Geopolitical tensions are no longer confined to Europe. The war that began in Ukraine has spilled into the Middle East and could eventually engulf Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula amid intensifying U.S.-China rivalry. North Korea is deepening its military ties with Russia and is reportedly gaining combat experience and advanced weaponry through these interactions. The only credible way to deter a nuclear-armed North Korea is through a robust Korea-U.S. alliance.

At this volatile moment, clinging to a vague notion of “balancing diplomacy” or assuming a mediating role risks isolating Korea on the world stage. Instead, President Lee Jae Myung must follow through on his foreign policy pledge to strengthen the comprehensive Korea-U.S. strategic alliance and deepen trilateral cooperation with Japan.

Korea must also enhance solidarity with other democracies — including Europe and Australia — to preserve the liberal order. Only when Korea stands firm as part of the democratic bloc will China be unable to dismiss its influence. For that reason, it would have been prudent for President Lee to attend the recent NATO summit, even if it presented political discomfort. Korea must find its voice and use it where it counts.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.