Why 86 percent of South Koreans see China as a threat despite diplomacy and partisan divides

Nearly nine in 10 South Koreans view China as a threat, according to a new survey conducted by the JoongAng Ilbo and East Asia Institute.

While progressives and conservatives remain sharply divided over their views of other countries, wariness toward China cuts across the political spectrum.

The survey found that 85.7 percent of respondents considered China a threat to South Korea, while 9.9 percent said it was not.

The perception crossed party lines. Among supporters of the Democratic Party (DP), 81.7 percent viewed China as a threat, compared to 90 percent of People Power Party (PPP) supporters.

That relative consensus stands in stark contrast to attitudes toward the United States. In the same survey, 33.6 percent of progressives said they trusted the United States, compared to 62.5 percent of conservatives.

Public sentiment toward China has worsened despite two rounds of summit diplomacy.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited South Korea in October 2025 for the APEC summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, his first visit to the country in 11 years. President Lee Jae Myung made a state visit to Beijing and Shanghai two months later. Reciprocal state visits just two months apart were unprecedented.

Yet the share of respondents with a favorable impression of China fell to 16.9 percent this year from 25.6 percent last year. The share with an unfavorable impression rose to 73.7 percent, the highest since the record 73.8 percent registered in 2021.

Trust in China also fell to 15.9 percent from 24.8 percent.

Japan moved in the opposite direction. The leaders of South Korea and Japan met six times over the same period, while the share of respondents with a favorable impression of Japan climbed to 54.3 percent, the highest since the survey began in 2013.

The worsening perception of China appears partly attributable to sensitive bilateral issues that remain unresolved despite the summit diplomacy.

The South Korean government praised China's relocation in January of a suspicious structure — described by Beijing as an aquaculture management facility — from the provisional measures zone in the Yellow Sea to waters outside the zone as "meaningful progress." Beijing, however, said the relocation was a corporate decision rather than a government measure. Two aquaculture facilities, Shenlan No. 1 and No. 2, remain in place.

China's unofficial restrictions on South Korean cultural content, commonly known as the “Korean Wave ban,” also remain in place. Dream Concert in Hong Kong 2026, a joint K-pop concert which was scheduled to take place in Hong Kong in February, was postponed indefinitely by its Chinese co-organizers.

Security issues on the Korean Peninsula have also drawn pressure from Beijing.

When South Korea and the United States held a Nuclear Consultative Group meeting in Seoul in June, Lin Jian, the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, warned that South Korea should "act prudently."

Economic coercion was the most commonly cited reason for viewing China as a threat, with 55.4 percent pointing to the possibility that Beijing could exert economic pressure at any time, as it did in response to the U.S. deployment of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile system to South Korea.

China's economic retaliation over the Thaad deployment began in 2017, and restrictions on South Korean cultural content have persisted for nine years. A nationwide shortage of diesel exhaust fluid in 2021 also showed how tighter Chinese export procedures alone could bring South Korea's logistics sector to a standstill.

Supply chain concerns grew further after China imposed export controls on seven rare earth elements in April 2025, raising the supply chain risk for key South Korean industries such as semiconductors and electric vehicles.

China accounted for 20 percent of South Korea’s total trade last year at $272.7 billion, making it Seoul's largest trading partner.

A "direct military threat" was cited by 37.9 percent of respondents, followed by China's "lack of commitment to North Korea's denuclearization" at 32.8 percent.

Asked which countries pose a realistic and direct military threat to South Korea, 78.9 percent named China, second to North Korea at 88.4 percent. The number rose 5.9 percentage points from the previous year and narrowed the gap with North Korea to just 9.5 percentage points.

The increasingly close relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang may also have contributed to the perceived threat. Xi visited Pyongyang in June for the first time in seven years and held a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. China's account of the summit, however, omitted any reference to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Despite those concerns, most respondents did not favor distancing South Korea from China.

Asked about the direction South Korea’s foreign policy should take, the largest share of respondents, 39.9 percent, said the country should seek closer ties with both the United States and China.

Another 32.2 percent favored closer ties with the United States, while 8.4 percent said South Korea should move closer to China.

The results suggest that concerns about China coexist with a pragmatic desire to manage the relationship given South Korea's heavy economic dependence on China.

That preference for balance was particularly pronounced among progressives, at 54.6 percent, and DP supporters, at 54.1 percent.

The sentiment also aligns with Lee's remarks during a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington in August 2025.

"We are now in a situation where we can no longer pursue the old approach of relying on the United States for security and China for the economy," Lee said.

Conservatives leaned more heavily toward Washington. Some 52.6 percent of conservative respondents and 59.8 percent of PPP supporters said South Korea should grow closer to the United States.

South Korea has continued to walk a diplomatic tightrope between Washington and Beijing.

South Korea has maintained its balancing act in its diplomacy with the United States and China.

On July 12, the government declined a U.S. request to join a statement signed by 14 countries, including the United States, Japan and the Philippines, commemorating the 10th anniversary of the South China Sea arbitration ruling. The South Korean Embassy in the Philippines issued a separate statement instead.

Four days later, Seoul demonstrated it could put space between it and Beijing, too, when China launched the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization with 29 countries in Shanghai. South Korea sent only working-level officials, despite Beijing’s request for high-level representation.

BY YOON JI-WON [lee.jiwon10@joongang.co.kr]