Trump says Kim Jong-un ‘responded’ to dialogue offer, but cons may outweigh pros for North

"Um," U.S. President Donald Trump said, taking a beat. "Yeah, he has."

The answer came in response to a question by a reporter at the White House on Monday asking whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had replied to overtures for dialogue, which is fueling speculation about a possible meeting during Trump’s Asia trip in November.

But with Pyongyang now enjoying closer ties with Beijing and Moscow and facing less urgency for sanctions relief, Kim may see little reason to rush back to the negotiating table.

Trump did not disclose when or how Kim responded, but speculation has since emerged that Trump may seek a meeting with the North Korean leader during his trip to Asia for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, in November.

Trump had repeatedly expressed a desire to meet Kim during his trip to Asia in October of last year, but North Korea did not respond.

This time, the ball again appears to be in Kim’s court over whether to resume dialogue. The regime leader, who has repeatedly vowed to prepare for a prolonged confrontation with the United States while leaving open the possibility of talks with Trump, now faces a more complex calculus.

Less urgency for U.S.-North Korea talks

In a Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump once again pushed for scaled-back joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises. The move appears aimed at generating momentum for talks by leveraging an issue to which Kim has long been particularly sensitive.

In a letter to Trump in August 2019 ahead of working-level talks between North Korea and the United States in Stockholm, Kim complained that the allies were conducting “war exercises” that he had “strongly requested” be halted.

“I am clearly offended and I do not want to hide this feeling from you. I am really, very offended,” Kim wrote.

From Pyongyang’s perspective, however, sanctions relief and security guarantees are less pressing than they were during Trump’s first term.

Since deploying troops to Russia, North Korea has drawn closer to Moscow and has been securing advanced military technology, funds for the regime and food while circumventing sanctions.

Pyongyang has also emerged from diplomatic isolation and sought to showcase itself as a key pillar of a trilateral alignment with China and Russia.

“North Korea is making up for its military and economic vulnerabilities through closer ties with China and Russia,” said Oh Gyeong-seob, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “It has less urgency to improve relations with the United States than during Trump’s first term, when it was under pressure from sweeping sanctions.”

The unpredictability of Trump

Trump’s trademark unpredictability is another factor that could heighten Kim’s wariness. The U.S. president has used military pressure to extract concessions from his counterparts when facing political or diplomatic roadblocks. His sudden resort to military action even while pursuing nuclear negotiations with Iran could be particularly concerning for Kim.

Unlike at a summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2019, Kim may now calculate that a breakdown in negotiations with Washington could immediately lead to military pressure.

Adding to the uncertainty are Trump’s falling approval ratings on the back of high inflation stemming from the prolonged war with Iran ahead of the midterm elections.

“Trump’s current circumstances and his personal tendencies are contributing to greater distrust,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies. “Kim Jong-un will also consider the possibility that the offer of dialogue could be a ‘one-off show’ aimed at overcoming a political crisis.”

The memory of the 2019 Hanoi summit, which ended without a deal, also weighs heavily. After returning home empty-handed, Kim was exposed to overt diplomatic failure, and he may be reluctant to take the same risk again.

“Kim will likely calculate that he needs to possess a complete and formidable nuclear and missile arsenal to extract higher concessions from the United States,” Prof. Lim said. “There is also the burden of potentially sending a message domestically that he is once again placing false hope in the United States.”

Still, the possibility that Kim could abruptly choose to meet Trump cannot be ruled out. A meeting could let him use their "friendly" ties to manage U.S. pressure while boosting his diplomatic leverage.

For now, however, observers see a greater likelihood that Kim will focus on strengthening his nuclear capabilities and the ties among North Korea, China and Russia while maximizing his negotiating leverage before returning to talks with the United States.

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO [kim.jiye@joongang.co.kr]