Trump revives first-term 'diplomatic quest,' pushes for meeting with Kim as early as fall: U.S. media

U.S. President Donald Trump is pressing his aides to arrange a one-on-one dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as early as this fall, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

Trump's recent directive to scale back on the annual Seoul-Washington military exercise can be seen as an opening gesture aimed at bringing Kim back to the negotiating table. Earlier on Sunday, Trump stated that he has maintained a "good relationship" with Kim. 

Now mired in a war he launched to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Trump may see renewed dialogue with Kim as a chance to score a diplomatic breakthrough, analysts say. Trump has long treated his personal rapport with Kim, built over three summits in his first term, as a substitute for institutional diplomacy with Pyongyang.

“Trump has privately discussed setting up an in-person discussion with Kim during the president’s next trip to Asia […], which could happen in November when world leaders gather at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation [APEC] in Shenzhen, China,” officials quoted in the WSJ’s report said.  

The WSJ noted that Trump is “seeking to revive a dramatic diplomatic quest from his first term” to persuade Kim to abandon the regime’s nuclear program.

“The [U.S.] president’s desire for another high-stakes meeting with Kim suggests Trump is eagerly searching for a crowning foreign policy achievement as victory in Iran remains elusive,” the WSJ said.

Trump sees a one-on-one in-person meeting with Kim as an opportunity to reopen dialogue with North Korea.

Still, the newspaper noted that there is no formal plan currently underway and that most U.S. presidents have refused to meet without preconditions with Kim, an authoritarian dictator believed to possess dozens of nuclear warheads.

Even after the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi collapsed without a deal in February 2019, Trump continued to tout his personal relationship with Kim and expressed a willingness to meet him without preconditions.

Trump also publicly signaled his willingness to meet Kim during his trip to South Korea for the APEC summit in Gyeongju last October. His team explored a possible trip to Panmunjom on the inter-Korean border, but Pyongyang never responded.

Trump’s order to scale back the South Korea-U.S. joint drill was driven in part by frustration over what he viewed as Seoul’s tepid support for the Iran war and other issues. At the same time, the move allowed Trump to signal his sincerity to Kim through action, not just words.

Trump linked his directive to reduce the exercises to his “good relationship” with Kim and his claims that he “has” received responses from the regime leader about re-engagement.

Kim, in fact, repeatedly called on Trump to suspend or cancel the joint exercises during the period of U.S.-North Korea engagement in 2018 and 2019.

In June 2019, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry publicly complained that Trump was preparing to proceed with joint military exercises despite a pledge he had made when he met Kim at Panmunjom.

But analysts point out that North Korea now has far less incentive than it did then to engage in denuclearization talks.

“The U.S. doesn’t formally recognize North Korea as a nuclear power, though Kim has tried to get Washington to do so,” the WSJ said.

Since talks with Washington collapsed, Kim has pushed ahead with an aggressive nuclear buildup by expanding and operating nuclear facilities that are believed to have sharply increased the country’s stockpile of fissile material. North Korea has also forged an alliance with Russia by sending troops to fight in Ukraine.

More recently, Pyongyang has moved quickly to mend strained ties with Beijing, aided by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea. The rapprochement has further eroded the power of sanctions, a key source of leverage in pressing Pyongyang to take steps toward denuclearization.

With both South Korea and the United States publicly expressing a desire for dialogue with North Korea, Kim’s strategic position has also risen to an unprecedented level. Even if negotiations materialize, Kim would come to the table with a far stronger hand.

Kim appears more determined than ever to capitalize on the shifting geopolitical landscape to secure international recognition of North Korea as an official nuclear power.

Pyongyang has repeatedly signaled that it remains open to talks with Trump, but has made clear that its nuclear arsenal is not up for negotiation.

North Korea has already enshrined its nuclear status in its constitution and adopted laws governing its nuclear forces that allow for first use.

Under these dynamics, renewed U.S.-North Korea talks could lead to a small deal that curbs only threats to the U.S. mainland, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, while leaving intact North Korea’s short- and medium-range missiles capable of striking South Korea. In return, Washington could offer guarantees for the security of the North Korean regime.

If Trump were to use U.S. troops in South Korea or extended deterrence as bargaining chips, his transactional approach to alliances could leave South Korea facing the same nuclear threat but with weakened security guarantees.

“Seoul supports engagement between Washington and Pyongyang in the hopes of advancing stability in the region,” the WSJ reported. “But the analysts and U.S. officials said a bad deal could ultimately prove harmful to relationships with regional allies like South Korea.”

The engagement would just comfort dictators in the pursuit of U.S. foreign policy goals, experts say.

“It appeases yet another despotic dictator based on a misperception that a personal relationship will actually achieve U.S. foreign policy objectives,” Bruce Klingner, a former senior Central Intelligence Agency officer in the Koreas, told the U.S. media.

Some observers also believe China, as the host, would be reluctant to see a U.S.-North Korea summit take place on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen.

Beijing is unlikely to want Trump and Kim to steal the spotlight at a marquee diplomatic event that Xi has carefully cultivated, which could render the summit to little more than a backdrop for their meeting.

China could instead seek a hand in setting the agenda and shaping the format of any talks in an effort to retain influence over the negotiations.

BY YOO JEE-HYE [lee.soojung1@joongang.co.kr]