Trade, troops and Trump: Korea faces pressure on multiple fronts

WASHINGTON — Washington appears to be stepping up pressure on Seoul across both economic and security fronts, as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes South Korea to move faster on its investment commitments while calling for a reduction in joint military exercises between the allies.

The pressure comes as Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan made an urgent trip to the United States Sunday for talks with U.S. officials, amid reports that the Trump administration is increasingly frustrated with the pace of South Korea’s $350 billion promise for new investments, including in shipbuilding.

U.S. news outlet Politico reported Monday that Trump’s push to reduce the joint exercises was driven by frustration over the slow implementation of South Korea’s pledged investment in the United States. This follows as Trump on Sunday said he instructed to scale back South Korea-U.S. joint military drills, noting that those exercises are not only "costly" but also send a "totally inappropriate and hostile" signal to North Korea.

Politico cited an anonymous official involved in the negotiations who described South Korea as “the slowest negotiators ever.”

“President Donald Trump is reprising his first-term threats to pull the U.S. back from South Korean military exercises in part because of frustrations over the pace of Seoul’s $350 billion investment pledge, according to three people familiar with the discussions,” Politico wrote under the report titled “Korea’s miscalculation on trade may cost them on security."

The outlet noted Trump’s move “underscores the president’s tendency to conflate countries’ economic and security relationships with the United States, with frustrations in one part of the relationship bleeding into his assessment of another.”

Politico's assessment indicates that Trump is using South Korea’s security situation, despite it being unrelated to the investment issue, as leverage to press Seoul to follow through on its U.S. investment commitments.

It is also notable that Trump aired his frustration over what he viewed as South Korea’s insufficient support for the Iran war while Minister Kim was visiting the United States. Kim met U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Monday, with the U.S. side reportedly again calling for South Korea to swiftly follow through on its commitments.

At the opening ceremony of the South Korea-U.S. Shipbuilding Partnership Center (KUSPC) in Washington last month, Lutnick also openly expressed frustration over delays in South Korean investment. He stressed that the Trump administration would “judge” the center by tangible results rather than by "how many meetings you hold, how many memorandums of understanding you sign or how many cocktail parties you host."

"We are going to judge the center by the capital you deploy, the facilities you modernize, the workers you train, the supply chains you establish, and ultimately the simple number of how many domestically produced ships we make together," Lutnick said. His remarks quickly cast a chill over the ceremony.

Back in U.S. after just three weeks

Kim’s latest trip to the United States comes just three weeks after his previous visit. Speaking to reporters at Dulles International Airport near Washington upon his arrival on Sunday, Kim said the government was aiming to announce its first project involving South Korea’s U.S. investment in late August or early September.

“Various specific issues are emerging in the final stages of working-level discussions,” the minister said.

A government source also said Kim’s return schedule has yet to be decided, as the minister met with Lutnick without having finalized a specific investment destination.

Kim is therefore expected to continue efforts in the United States to ease Washington’s concerns, underscoring the intensity of U.S. pressure.

With economic tensions now spilling over into security matters, Yeo Han-koo, who had served as South Korea’s top trade negotiator, has meanwhile been abruptly dismissed from office on Friday, for reasons that remain unclear.

Trade spills into security

Trump tends to view everything through a transactional lens, according to Victor Cha, South Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, during an emergency virtual discussion Monday. He added that South Korea announcing the first investment could help ease the tension.

Trump has, in fact, directly linked economic issues to security on the Korean Peninsula during the process, even raising the possibility of dealing directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un while excluding South Korea. Security experts warned that the situation could pose a substantive security threat to South Korea, which has sought to position itself as a “peacemaker.”

As Trump failed to immediately resolve the Iran issue, he appears to have needed a scapegoat, and that happened to be South Korea, Professor Daniel Sneider at Stanford University told the JoongAng Ilbo. 

Experts also see that Trump is using the contribution to the Iran war as a litmus test for allies.

Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, pointed out that Trump is using military contributions to the Iran war as a litmus test, even ignoring the fact that South Korea spends more on defense than any other U.S. ally in Asia.

Seeking ways to strengthen leverage

The U.S. pressure is seen as Trump's method of searching for new ways to strengthen the administration's negotiating leverage as the midterm elections approach. One way is underscoring its relationship with North Korea. 

Cronin, however, said there has been no public indication that Kim Jong-un has responded with diplomatic interest. He also expressed skepticism that the North Korean leader will suddenly meet President Trump or the leaders of South Korea or Japan.

Trump nevertheless claimed that Kim had responded to his overture to resume diplomacy. He did not say when or how Kim had responded, but the remark could indicate that Trump is considering direct engagement with the North Korean leader.

Later Monday, Trump posted a meme on social media evoking a phone conversation with Kim, accompanied by a caption depicting the North Korean leader as saying, “Hey Donald, we’re cool… right?”

Prof. Sneider also raised the possibility that Trump deliberately targeted South Korea’s vulnerabilities, as Seoul sees the resumption of U.S.-North Korea diplomacy as a means of easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but at the same time, there are concerns about being excluded from the negotiations.

If discussions excluding South Korea actually move forward, they could lead directly to the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea or, in effect, even the dissolution of the alliance, Prof. Sneider said, adding it could emerge as a real and serious risk to the alliance.

The professor also pointed out that Trump’s strategy of exploiting this linkage could make it difficult for South Korea to maintain the cautious position it has taken so far on economic issues.

BY KANG TAE-HWA [kim.jiye@joongang.co.kr]