South Koreans want wartime control transferred soon but doubt the country is ready
A new survey finds majority support for transferring wartime operational control to Seoul within two years, even as many respondents question whether South Korea is ready to stand more fully on its own militarily.
President Lee Jae Myung speaks during the first meeting of the Future Defense Strategy Committee held in Jinhae, South Gyeongsang, on May 26.JOINT PRESS CORPS
More than half of South Koreans support transferring wartime operational control (Opcon) from Washington to Seoul within the next one to two years, according to a new survey on Monday.
Fifty-two percent of respondents viewed a transfer of Opcon from the United States in 2027 or 2028 positively, in a joint survey of 1,547 respondents commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo and the East Asia Institute (EAI) and conducted by Hankook Research.
Wartime Opcon refers to the military command authority over South Korean forces during a war, which currently rests with the United States under a joint command structure.
Public opinion was far more divided, however, over whether South Korea could achieve greater security independence in the near term.
Asked whether South Korea could achieve “security independence through a military buildup within the next three to five years,” 46.4 percent said it could not. That narrowly exceeded the 45.9 percent who said it could.
The findings reveal a seeming paradox. More than half of respondents support an early Opcon transfer, yet nearly as many believe South Korea is not ready to establish a South Korean-led combined defense posture, a key part of the transfer.
That divide becomes clearer in the reasons respondents gave for supporting an early transfer.
Among those who viewed an early Opcon transfer positively, 57.8 percent said it was "only natural for a sovereign country." However, just 12.8 percent said they believed South Korea was sufficiently prepared.
The results suggest that support for an early transfer is driven more by the principle of sovereignty than confidence in South Korea's current defense readiness.
U.S. soldiers salute during a change-of-command ceremony for the United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command and the United States Forces Korea at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on Dec. 20, 2024.AP/YONHAP
The public’s support for an early transfer may have been fueled by the government’s push to frame the Opcon transfer as a matter of taking back what is South Korea’s — often described as "recovering" Opcon — at the heart of its call for greater defense autonomy.
"Building a self-reliant national defense that allows us to protect ourselves without any outside assistance is our greatest task," President Lee Jae Myung said during a policy briefing by foreign affairs and security agencies on Wednesday.
Lee had previously reassured that there "won’t be any problems” even if South Korea regained Opcon immediately, during the first meeting of the Future Defense Strategy Committee in May.
Lee’s remarks came after South Korea and the United States appeared to differ over the timing of the Opcon transfer. Gen. Xavier Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), said during a U.S. House hearing in April that he had submitted to the Defense Department a road map to achieve the transfer by the second quarter of fiscal year 2029, or between January and March 2029 — suggesting that the U.S. side saw a transfer by 2028 as premature.
U.S. Gen. Xavier Brunson, the commander of U.S. Forces KoreaYONHAP
Experts say the push for an earlier transfer also reflects a growing sense of nationalism in Korea.
“This should be seen as a form of nationalism manifesting itself as a push for greater self-reliance in national defense,” Sohn Yul, a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University, said.
NAM JUNG-HYUN
Nevertheless, there remained a broad consensus that the South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture should be maintained even after the Opcon transfer.
The survey showed that 43.8 percent of respondents said the size and role of USFK should remain unchanged even after the Opcon transfer. The result suggests that many South Koreans believe their country would struggle to defend itself without support from the United States.
Notably, even among respondents who supported an early Opcon transfer, 31.76 percent said the size and role of USFK should remain unchanged.
China's President Xi Jinping, right, waves next to North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un during a farewell ceremony in Pyongyang on June 9.AP/YONHAP
Furthermore, concerns about China have grown in both the economic and security spheres. In the same survey, 85.7 percent of respondents described China as "threatening" to South Korea.
"Out of the respondents, 62.4 percent said South Korea can protect its security by maintaining the South Korea-U.S. alliance at its current level or by strengthening it," Sohn said. "That reflects the reality that while people may not trust the United States, they see no alternative."
In particular, 41 percent of male respondents in their 20s opposed an early Opcon transfer. The figure was surpassed only by men in their 60s at 47.5 percent and men and women aged 70 or older at 49.6 percent and 51.6 percent, respectively.
BY SHIM SEOK-YONG [lee.jiwon10@joongang.co.kr]
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
