Majority of Koreans still see U.S. ahead of China despite strains in alliance, survey finds

A majority of Koreans believe the United States will remain ahead of China as a global leader despite growing dissatisfaction with Washington over tariffs and defense burden-sharing, a survey showed Sunday.

The findings suggest that Koreans increasingly view their relationship with the United States through the lens of necessity and national interests rather than trust or affinity, while still favoring a stable alliance between the two countries.

In a joint survey conducted by the JoongAng Ilbo and the East Asia Institute (EAI), 57.6 percent of respondents disagreed with the statement that China would overtake the United States as a global leader in the near future.

Seven in 10 respondents also considered the United States ahead of China in the competition for advanced technologies. A total of 70.2 percent said the United States possesses more advanced technologies than China, compared with just 11 percent who said China is ahead.

The results suggest that the United States is still widely seen as leading the global technology race despite China's rapid advances in areas such as semiconductors and AI. Growing anti-China sentiment in Korea may also have influenced the results.

The perception of continued U.S. leadership was reflected in attitudes toward the bilateral alliance. A total of 62.3 percent agreed that the Korea-U.S. alliance should be maintained at its current level or strengthened somewhat, despite continuing friction between the two countries.

Confidence in U.S. dominance, however, has gradually weakened. The proportion of respondents who believed China was unlikely to overtake the United States fell from 64 percent in 2024 to 58.5 percent last year and 57.6 percent this year, marking a decline for the second consecutive year.

While respondents broadly favored maintaining a stable alliance encompassing both security and economic ties, their assessments became more critical when asked about specific bilateral issues.

Nearly 46 percent said the Korean government was not responding appropriately to tariff and investment negotiations with the United States, compared with 39.7 percent who viewed its response positively.

Last year, the leaders of Korea and the United States agreed to cap U.S. tariffs on Korean goods at 15 percent, while Seoul committed to investing $350 billion in the United States.

The Korean government has touted the outcome of the negotiations — the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and expanded rights to enrich and reprocess uranium — as achievements, but the survey suggests the public has been less enthusiastic about the overall outcome.

The government's response to U.S. demands for greater burden-sharing — including higher defense spending and contributions related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran — also received more negative than positive assessments, at 46.7 percent and 38.2 percent, respectively.

At the request of the Trump administration, Korea agreed to raise defense spending to about 3.5 percent of GDP. After Seoul signaled its willingness to increase spending, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called Korea "a model ally."

The survey, however, indicates that the move has not been well received by the Korean public.

The negative response could reflect criticism of how the government has handled U.S. demands or the extent of its concessions, but may also indicate broader resistance to the demands themselves, according to the EAI.

In particular, public frustration over tariffs may stem from perceptions that Washington has offered no exceptions even to allies while asking them to share costs when U.S. interests require their support, including efforts to maintain stability in the Strait of Hormuz.

The findings also suggest that Koreans are beginning to take a more transactional view of the alliance.

Asked how Korea should contribute to the war in Iran, 52.3 percent favored direct participation in postwar reconstruction projects, far exceeding the 6.7 percent who supported military assistance.

The result suggests that respondents prefer sharing alliance responsibilities through projects that could also bring economic benefits to Korea rather than by expanding the country's military role. Another 15.1 percent said Korea should not provide any support.

Overall, 76.7 percent said Korea should play some role. Diplomatic support was favored by 13.7 percent, while 4 percent supported financial assistance such as contributions to reconstruction funds.

The results suggest that while Koreans may be dissatisfied with U.S. demands, a majority still believe the country should fulfill its responsibilities as an ally.

The survey of 1,547 adults nationwide was conducted online from July 20 to 21 by Hankook Research at the request of the EAI. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO, LEE YU-JUNG [shin.woojin@joongang.co.kr]